Myanmar's coup news

 

Myanmar's coup Why now and what's next                                                                                

Myanmar is facing a political stalemate. The threat of civil war, or at least the rising level of violence, neither the protesters nor the army appear ready to retreat. Meanwhile, the military junta appears to be safe from Western criticism, and while China is happy to adhere to "non-interference", the chances of a comprehensive international response are slim. Against this background, there are a few reasons for hope. A handful of observers have argued that the comparison with the civil war in Syria is too much. On the one hand, there is a shortage of weapons and international actors have not started arming many of the main characters, as happened in Syria. For another, despite criticism of the insurgency by several ethnic armed groups, the military in Myanmar has been adept at buying or distributing many of these groups. A coordinated military response from ethnic groups is therefore unlikely, although if it had, with increasing violent civilian resistance, the military could have been augmented.

However, the possibility of a humanitarian crisis on a Syrian scale is significant. No neighbor of Myanmar has any interest in attracting large numbers of refugees, so those opposed to the uprising have no clear flight option. China, Thailand and India have all taken steps to tighten border controls, and Bangladesh is already hosting more than a million Rohingya refugees.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

In Myanmar's commercial capital, Yangon, people are wandering for hospital beds and searching for oxygen for family members and friends affected by the quake. Bodies are piling up in cemeteries.

With economic despair and a deadly virus destroying the population, neither the military, nor its real power, nor the parallel government, with its international influence, can change the epidemic or break the political stalemate. Has been successful                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

The military has sought to control the country since the February 1 uprising, which sparked widespread protests and civil disobedience. More than 900 people were killed and thousands arrested.

Meanwhile, the National Unity Government, formed from the remnants of Aung San Suu Kyi's deportation or covert administration, has made little progress in regaining control of the country.

Both sides are now preparing for a major diplomatic battle at the United Nations, where a credentials committee will be convened in September and each side is in a position to recognize it.

Myanmar's UN envoy Kyu Mo Tun has maintained his loyalty to Aung San Suu Kyi's administration in a speech to the General Assembly in February.

Efforts by the military to oust him have so far been fruitless, but this month Aung San Suu Kyi, who left the army 26 years later this year, was nominated by Foreign Minister Wona Mong Lon to replace Kyu Mo Tun.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

Myanmar's military has announced that it has taken control of the country, a decade after an agreement was handed over to the civilian government.

The uprising spread panic across the country, which endured nearly 50 years of rule under oppressive military regimes before moving toward democratic rule in 2011. The early arrests of Aung San Suu Kyi and other politicians were also reminiscent of the days when many hoped they would be left behind.

For the past five years, Suu Kyi and her once-banned National League for Democracy (NLD) party have led the country since being elected in 2015 in the free and strong vote seen in 25 years. On Monday morning, the party was due to begin its second term in office.

But behind the scenes, the military has a relatively tight grip on Myanmar (also known as Burma), thanks to a constitution that guarantees control of all seats in parliament and a quarter of the country's most powerful ministries. ۔

Which raises the question of why he seized power now - and even more so, what happens now?

Trumpian' fraud allegations

The exact timing can be easily explained, as Jonathan Head, the BBC's Southeast Asia correspondent, said: "Parliament should have had its first session on Monday morning, which would have resulted in a result." This will not happen now.

The NLD won more than 80 percent of the vote in the November election, which remained popular despite allegations of genocide against the country's Rohingya Muslims.

The military-backed opposition immediately after the vote. Start accusing him of fraud. The allegation was reiterated in a signed statement issued by the new acting president to justify the imposition of a year-long state of emergency.

"The UEC [Election Commission] failed to address major irregularities in the voter list in the November 8, 2020, multi-party general election," said Maine Swee, a former general who served as vice president.

But little evidence has been found to support this accusation.

"Obviously, Aung San Suu Kyi has won a landslide victory," Phil Robertson, deputy director of Human Rights Watch (HRW) in Asia, told the BBC. "There have been allegations of electoral fraud. This is partly Trump's. This evidence is fraud without proof."

Nevertheless, Mr Robertson called the occupation "unforgivable".

"Did [the vote] mean losing power? The answer is no."

Embarrassing the Father of the nation

The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) may have won a small portion of the vote in the November vote, but the junta ruled the country largely through a controversial 2008 constitution. Has grown

This not only automatically gives the army parliamentary seats, but also gives it control of three key ministries: Home Affairs, Defense and Border Affairs.

Therefore, as long as the constitution remains the same, the military will retain some control. But can the NLD, by its majority, amend the constitution?

Jonathan Head, on the other hand, says he needs the support of 75 percent of parliament. This is an impossible task when the military controls at least 25%.Ayman Thant, a former journalist and tech educator, said there could be another reason for today's action: embarrassment by the military.

"They were not expected to lose," she told the BBC from Yangon (Rangoon). "People whose families were in the army will have to vote against them."

Of course, this is much more than that.

Aung San Suu Kyi: The icon of democracy that fell by grace

What you need to know about the Rohingya crisis

"You need to understand what the military thinks about its position in the country." "The international media is used a lot to refer to Aung San Suu Kyi as the 'mother'. The military considers itself the father of the nation.

As a result, she feels a sense of "responsibility and privilege" when it comes to the ruler - and in recent years, as the country has become more open to international trade, she has Didn't like it.

"They see outsiders in particular as a threat."

Epidemic and international concerns over the loss of Rohingya in the November vote may have encouraged the military to act now, Iman Thant said. Similarly, it still took him by surprise.